Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,417,774$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,453,685.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,453,685.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85,898$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,680.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(87,680.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,085,462$ on 2020-05-14

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $74,781$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,275.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(81,275.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,592$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(205 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,287.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,287.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,085$ on 2020-05-14

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,118$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(712 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,982.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,982.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $260$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(18.1 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(280.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,778$ on 2020-05-14

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,320$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(713 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,347.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 47.4)}}\) (asimptote \(14,347.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $422$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(53.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{420.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(420.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,547$ on 2020-05-14

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,595$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,026.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(73,026.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,477$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(139 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,753.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,753.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,643$ on 2020-05-14

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,318$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(52.8 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $133$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(11.3 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(225.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,932$ on 2020-05-14

Cuba

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,830$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(258 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,869.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,869.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $79$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(83.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $368$ on 2020-05-14

El Salvador

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,112$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.47 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $684$ on 2020-05-14

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Cuba recovered 57%
Jamaica recovered 10%

Jamaica

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $509$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(28.9 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{545.5}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(545.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-14

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $382$ on 2020-05-14