Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,417,774$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,453,685.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,453,685.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $85,898$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,680.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(87,680.7\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,085,462$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,781$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(4.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,275.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(81,275.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,592$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(205 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,287.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,287.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,085$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,118$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(712 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,982.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,982.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $260$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(18.1 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(280.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,778$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,320$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(713 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,347.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 47.4)}}\) (asimptote \(14,347.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $422$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(53.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{420.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(420.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,547$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,595$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,026.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(73,026.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,477$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(139 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,753.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,753.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,643$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,318$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(52.8 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $133$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(11.3 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(225.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,932$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,830$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(258 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,869.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,869.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $79$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(83.3\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $368$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,112$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $23$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.47 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $684$ on 2020-05-14
